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Delivering the agricultural greenhouse gas and ammonia inventories and projections - SCF0102

The project aims to deliver annual inventories of ammonia and GHGs to Defra on a timely basis. The project will also deliver annually updates projections of emissions. The project will compile the GHG inventory using the UKs current Tier 1 approach whilst developing an operational Tier 2/3 inventory in accordance with the guidance and evolving outcomes of the GHG R&D Platform. In 2015 GHG reporting will transition to the revised tier 2/3 model. Throughout the lifetime of the project the developing Tier 2/3 GHG inventory model will be compiled as an unpublished „shadow inventory‟ to allow Defra, the CCC and UNFCCC reviewers to understand how changes in the structure of the inventory will impact on overall emissions estimates. Change to the ammonia inventory will relate to project AC0123, and reflect developing trends in livestock housing and manure management.

As part of the UK government‟s commitments under the Kyoto protocol and United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change Defra produces an annual inventory of agricultural greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. The inventory covers emissions under the agricultural sector, as defined by the IPCC good practice guidance1. The IPCC‟s definition of agricultural emissions covers only those emissions arising from livestock husbandry and manure management and nutrient applications to soils. Agricultural energy use and carbon emissions associated with land use change or land management are dealt with elsewhere and are out of scope of this contract.

Previously the UK agricultural inventory has been submitted under the Tier 1 guidance of the IPCC, i.e. by combining national statistics on livestock numbers and fertiliser use by standard emissions factors derived from international literature review. However, since 2010 the UK has undertaken an ambitious project (the GHG R&D Platform2) to improve the representation of agriculture in the inventory, ensuring that it accurately reflects UK
agricultural practice, including on farm efficiency measures that reduce GHG emissions. Ongoing work in the platform is improving the evidence base to enable reporting to Tier 2 (use of nationally derived emissions factors) or Tier 3 (use of a nationally derived model and set of emissions factors) level. The future inventory delivery must therefore capture the proposed improvements that are being developed under the GHG R&D platform (projects AC0114, AC0115 and AC0116).

This project will operationally implement developments made to the structure of the UK inventory under the GHG R&D Platform, transitioning the UK from Tier 1 to higher tier reporting capability. Contractors will be required to continue reporting via the Tier 1 inventory until 2015 when the improved inventory can be implemented. As such, work will be required in the intervening years to prepare a revised inventory model and smooth the transition to
higher tier reporting.

The UK Government must also report estimates of ammonia emissions under international obligations including the National Emissions Ceilings Directive and the reporting requirements under the Gothenburg Protocol to the UNECE Convention on Long-Range Transboundary Air Pollution. These legislative acts require that the emission inventory be developed following the EMEP / EEA Air Pollutant Emission Inventory Guidebook. This contract delivers the UK agricultural ammonia inventory which is currently produced using the NARSES model and is relatively well developed. Ongoing projects (including AC0123)
are however updating parameterisation of the model to ensure that it is kept up to date and reflects UK agricultural practice accurately: Such developments will need to be incorporated into the operational inventory.
The overall aim of this project is to deliver annual inventories of ammonia, nitrous oxide and methane from UK agriculture to meet the Government’s reporting commitments under the Kyoto Protocol, Gothenburg Protocol and National Emissions Ceiling Directive in addition to stakeholder requirements for monitoring emissions against national, Devolved Administration (DA) and sector-specific targets and providing high-resolution maps of agricultural emissions for the UK National Atmospheric Emission Inventory (NAEI) and Greenhouse Gas Inventory (GHGI). This project will provide the transition in annual inventory delivery from the existing, largely Tier 1, model used for the GHG inventory and the NARSES model used for the ammonia inventory to a more detailed, country-specific approach, giving a better representation of UK agricultural practices, combining both GHG and ammonia inventories based on the outputs of the current GHG Platform Projects (AC0114, AC0115 and AC0116) and other relevant current projects.

Specific objectives are:
1. To deliver annual UK GHG (nitrous oxide and methane) and ammonia inventories for agriculture for the years 2012, 2013 and 2014, including high-resolution emission maps for the UK NAEI and GHGI.
2. To conduct a bilateral review of the agricultural GHG and ammonia inventories with Ireland.
3. To provide annual GHG and ammonia emission projections for UK agriculture to 2030 for each delivered inventory year.
4. To develop a revised model framework for delivery of the improved GHG and ammonia inventories.
5. To communicate inventory estimates and outcomes of model updates to UK government stakeholders on an annual basis.
6. To revise the high-resolution mapping methodology, taking account of the proposed new spatially-specific emission calculation methodology and enable provision of non-disclosive maps of agricultural emission at a high resolution, aiming for 1 km grid resolution datasets (at SNAP level 2).
Time-Scale and Cost
From: 2013

To: 2017

Cost: £1,618,175
Contractor / Funded Organisations
Cranfield University, Ricardo-AEA Ltd, A D A S UK Ltd (ADAS), SAC Commercial Ltd, Centre For Ecology and Hydrology (CEH), Rothamsted Research (BBSRC)
Climate Change