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Soil carbon fluxes and land use change: modelling component for national carbon dioxide inventory - CC0242

Description
The main objective of this project is to develop a system based on high-resolution spatial soils and land use data coupled to a dynamic simulation model to predict carbon fluxes from soils resulting from land-use change. This system will be applied to calculate annual CO2 losses from soils at the national and regional levels for use in the IPCC / UNFCCC National Greenhouse Gas Inventory. Results will be provided for 1960 to 2050 and will examine the likely interaction between land-use change and climate change. Uncertainty in these estimates will be assessed. In the final stage of the project, possible agricultural mitigation options will be examined and their potential to reduce net CO2 emissions quantified. Results will inform the UK government in its post-Kyoto UNFCCC negotiations.
Objective
1. To compare a dynamic simulation approach for estimating CO2 fluxes from land use change with the soil-related coefficient method currently used - 1 year after project begins.
2. Assess the uncertainty associated with estimates of CO2 flux from land use change as a function of assumptions about rates and geographical location of land-use change - 2 years after project begins.
3. To compare a spatially explicit approach for estimating CO2 fluxes from land use change with the methods currently used - 2 years after project begins.
4. To develop a computer-based model for estimating CO2 flux from soil type and land-use change combinations representative of UK conditions – prototype 1 year after project begins, deliver final version 2 years after project begins.
5. To develop a GIS-compatible version of the model, attached to the National Soil Map at a suitable scale - prototype 1 year after project begins - deliver final version 3 years after project begins.
6. Provide annual national and regional figures on CO2 flux from land use change, in a suitable format to be included in the UK GHGEI, from 1990 to 2012 – full high-spatial-resolution estimates for all years to be provided 3 years after project begins - interim estimates derived from more aggregated data annually.
7. Projected long term CO2 flux from land use change, according to a range of land use and climate change scenarios to be developed within the research work, and estimated historic fluxes since 1960 - 3 years after the project begins.
8. Quantified assessment of the potential for a range of soil management practices to be used as CO2 emission mitigation options – 3 years after the project begins.
9. Co-ordinate the MAFF and DETR components of the project and liase with other relevant parties such as the ITE, DETR and the project steering committee.
Project Documents
• Final Report : Soil carbon fluxes and land use change: modelling component for national carbon dioxide inventory   (2694k)
Time-Scale and Cost
From: 2000

To: 2003

Cost: £183,219
Contractor / Funded Organisations
Rothamsted Research (BBSRC)
Keywords
Climate and Weather              
Climate Change              
Environmental Protection              
Greenhouse Effect              
Sustainable Production              
Fields of Study
Agriculture and Climate Change