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Regionalised impacts of climate change on flood flows - FD2020

The primary objective of FD2020 was to assess the suitability of the October 2006 FCDPAG3 guidance on climate change. This guidance requires an allowance of 20% to be added to peak flows for any period between 2025 and 2115 for any location across Britain. This guidance was considered precautionary and its derivation reflected the evidence available at that time. FD2020 has been designed to increase the evidence base and the research findings suggest that regional, rather than national, guidelines for changes to peak flows due to climate change may be more appropriate.

The research has led to a number of key findings in relation to the project objectives. First, the catchment-based analysis suggests that the current allowance can no longer be considered precautionary as a change of 20% does not encompass the majority of catchment changes in flood flows. Second, there is strong evidence that catchment response to climate change (in terms of change in flood flows) is influences by catchment properties. This implies that a single national allowance for climate change might not be appropriate and that more "regionalised" allowances, depending on catchment type, could be developed.

The project will produce:
a) a set of regionalised (either geographic, or by catchment characteristic) impacts on flood flows;
b) a range of uncertainty in impact for each catchment.

The project will provide vital information for the development of regional guidance by Defra on climate change and flood flows in Britain. Moreover the wider flood management community, in particular the EA, will have access to regionalised information on the potential impacts of climate change, and the associated uncertainties, on flooding.

Project Documents
• Final Report : FD2020 Technical Report   (7894k)
• Final Report - SID5A : FD2020 SID5a   (45k)
• Technical Report : FD2020 Milestone Report 1   (1687k)
• Technical Report : FD2020 Milestone Report 2   (2032k)
• Technical Report : FD2020 Milestone Report 3   (5324k)
• Technical Report : FD2020 Milestone Report 4   (3076k)
• Technical Report : FD2020 Milestone Report 5   (6452k)
• Technical Summary : FD2020 SID5   (607k)
Time-Scale and Cost
From: 2005

To: 2009

Cost: £236,683
Contractor / Funded Organisations
Centre for Ecology and Hydrology
Environmental Protection              
Flood and Coastal Defence              
Flood Defence              
Policy Development              
Fields of Study
Flood and Coastal Erosion Risk Management