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A quantitative risk assessment of the role of wild deer in the perpetuation of TB in cattle - SE3037
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Description
Recent research has identified that several species of deer may pose a potential TB transmission threat to cattle. However, current knowledge does not support an informed judgement about the role that wild deer may play in either acting as a spill-over host, or as a reservoir of infection to cattle. Defra therefore wishes to perform a quantitative risk assessment to improve understanding of the role of wild deer in the perpetuation of TB in cattle. This research project therefore aims to:
1. Identify, collate and review national and international literature to determine the current understanding of the role of wild deer in the perpetuation of TB in cattle, what data is available to support any quantitative risk assessment exercise, and where the current uncertainties and gaps in knowledge and data lie
2. Determine the possible scope for a quantitative risk assessment (taking account of any uncertainties and gaps in current knowledge and data)
3. Develop a QRA model and carry out a risk assessment and appropriate sensitivity analyses to test the results
4. Present the results to Defra, along with recommendations for future research.
Because data in this area is sparse, we have proposed an approach that combines available data and expert judgment in a model that can explicitly handle uncertainty. If some data gaps cannot be filled the model can be used to explore what values the data items would have to take for the risks from deer to be significant. |
Objective
Objective 1 – Scoping: develop a qualitative understanding of the role of wild deer in the perpetuation of TB in cattle and determine the scope for a quantitative risk assessment (taking account of any uncertainties and/or gaps in current knowledge and/or data)
Objective 2 – Develop QRA model: convert the qualitative representation developed in stage 1 into a quantitative model, and carry out a risk assessment and appropriate sensitivity analyses.
Objective 3 – Report and recommendations: report the results and conclusions reached, summarise the potential magnitude of the TB risk due to wild deer and make recommendations for whether further research is needed, for example to improve the data estimates for the most important variables identified through the sensitivity analyses, or to fill any material gaps in the knowledge base that the project had identified. |
Project Documents
• Final Report : A quantative risk assessment of the role of wild deer in the perpetuation of TB in cattle
(204k)
• Final Report - Annex : A quantative risk assessment of the role of wild deer in the perpetuation of TB in cattle
(1360k)
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Time-Scale and Cost
From:
2005
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To:
2006
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Cost: £49,718 |
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Contractor / Funded Organisations
Risk Solutions |
Keywords
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Fields of Study and Contacts
Animal Health - vetscience@defra.gsi.gov.uk |