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Practicalities for Implementing Regionalised Allowances for Climate Change on Flood Flows - FD2648

This extension to project FD2020 (Regionalised Impacts of Climate Change on Flood Flows)will develop the outputs from the original science project into a set of policy tools and guidance for flood management under climate change.

FD2020 provided two key findings:
1. Results for the 2080s show that for the catchments modelled (155 in total) the current 20% allowance no longer encompasses the majority of catchment changes in flood flows using the UKCP09 projections, and others.
2. There is strong evidence that catchment response to climate change is dependent on catchment properties. This implies that there is scope to develop regionalised allowances, based on catchment type.

The new science from FD2020 could enable us to provide very detailed guidance on how to account for climate change when considering river flooding in the future, possibly specific for any location in the country.
These findings, if translated into guidance, will require a more complex understanding of change for flood managers and planners. The current nationwide allowance (20%) has provided a memorable and simple headline figure that has probably helped others factor in climate change work.

The specific objectives of this study are:
* Provide the fullest picture of changes to river flows from UKCP09 and other climate models, including an investigation of change through the century for three specific time horizons.
* Provide evaluation of the risk of changes in flooding for all gauged catchments in England and Wales using the FD2020 methodology and from the set of climate hazards used in FD2020.
* Provide evidence to the steering group showing how allowances could be derived and operationalised for each of the four spatial scales (national, regional, regional by catchment types, local), showing the strengths of each approach and the weaknesses. This will be used to provide an agreed approach to develop guidance.
* Use the recommendations from the steering group to help develop guidance for flood managers and planners.
* Provide supporting reports and information to support the release of the revised guidance.
Project Documents
• FRP - Final Report : Practicalities for Implementing Regionalised Allowances for Climate Change on Flood Flows   (22370k)
Time-Scale and Cost
From: 2010

To: 2010

Cost: £44,651
Contractor / Funded Organisations
Centre for Ecology and Hydrology
Environmental Protection              
Flood and Coastal Defence              
Flood Defence              
Policy Development              
Fields of Study
Flood and Coastal Erosion Risk Management