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Development of a metamodel tool for regional integrated climate change management - CC0362

Description
The RegIS project demonstrated that an evaluation of the regional impacts of climate change, through an integrated methodology, on the agriculture, hydrology, biodiversity, and coastal sectors is possible, but not straightforward. Although the ‘Drivers-Pressure-State-Impacts-Responses’ modelling framework used was successful, the project was not able to fully integrate the cross-sectoral climate change impacts because of run-time and data problems with some of the detailed mechanistic research models used. These models also hindered the wider applicability of the RegIS methodology. This project proposes to investigate and develop the use of computationally simpler modelling techniques, so called ‘meta models’ within a user friendly interface to make the RegIS methodology available to the wider stakeholder community.

The work will improve the mechanisms through which climate change research can be translated into integrated assessments of policy options. Application of the integrated methodology tool by stakeholders will allow them to plan to deal with the potential effects of climate change. This will strengthen the ways in which climate change science can assist policy groups in making real-world, often difficult, choices.

The principal products will include:

• An integrated methodology for regional climate change impact assessment for use by stakeholders.
• A user friendly software tool, containing the metamodels, for analysing impact of adaptation strategies.
• A final report and supporting technical reports, which will be reviewed in conjunction with key regional stakeholders.

The research will improve understanding of climate change impacts, and methods of dealing with them, which will be applicable to a wide range of stakeholders in each region. The methodology and experience will be robust, transparent and transportable to stakeholders in other regions of England and Wales, thereby providing a template for further assessments and studies by Government departments, local authorities, commercial and non-profit organisations. In this context, the research is clearly in the public interest.
Objective
1. To refine the RegIS risk assessment methodology for conducting climate change impact assessments on agriculture, hydrology, biodiversity and coasts into a form usable by Stakeholders, that explicitly addresses:
• local and regional scale impacts,
• interactions between sectors,
• the use and linkage of metamodels and
• stakeholder concerns and responses.
[Timing: Months 1 to 12]
[Lead role: Université Catholique de Louvain (UCL); Participation from all other partners]

2. To develop regional scenarios of the pressure of climate change, and state-impact characteristics which influence social and economic sensitivity to climatic change.
[Timing: Months 1 to 12]
[Lead role: Environmental Change Institute (ECI); Participation from UMIST, Flood Hazard Research Centre (FHRC), Silsoe Research Institute (SRI) and Institute of Water & Environment (IWE)]

3. To identify, with stakeholders in the North West and East Anglian regions, critical impacts, interactions and adaptive responses, and suitable interface design.
[Timing: Months 3 to 21]
[Lead role: UMIST; Participation from ECI]

4. To develop a robust and user friendly software tool, containing an encrypted version of the RegIS geographically-referenced database for the North West and East Anglian regions of relevant environmental data and scenarios of climate and socio-economic change, the metamodels and the input data needed for Stakeholders to analyse climate change impacts, their interactions and adaptive responses using the metamodels.
[Timing: Months 2 to 18]
[Lead role: UCL; Participation from all partners]

5. To develop, calibrate and validate metamodels based upon simulations using existing impact models for the North West and East Anglian regions for four sectors: agriculture, water, biodiversity, and coastal zones.
[Timing: Months 1 to 15] [Lead role: IWE (water); Participation from SRI and UCL (agriculture), ECI (biodiversity), FHRC (coastal zones), and UCL (model integration)]

6. To investigate the effects of climate change on critical impacts and interactions using the linked metamodels and scientific expertise. Specifically, to:
• Identify significant driving forces, impacts and interactions,
• Analyse the relative sensitivity of impacts and interactions, and
• Evaluate changes in impacts and interactions over short, medium and long-term time scales.
[Timing: Months 3 to 22][Lead role: IWE; Participation from all other partners]

7. To investigate adaptive responses to climate change using linked metamodels and scientific and stakeholder expertise. Specifically, to:
• Analyse adaptive mechanisms for minimising negative and maximising positive impacts/interactions,
• Define appropriate adaptive responses for implementation over short, medium and long-term time scales, and
• Simulate the effect of different policy scenarios on adaptive strategies.
[Timing: Months 16 to 24][Lead role: IWE; Participation from all other partners]
Project Documents
• Final Report : Development of a metamodel tool for regional integrated climate change management   (493k)
Time-Scale and Cost
From: 2003

To: 2005

Cost: £327,309
Contractor / Funded Organisations
University - Cranfield
Keywords
Climate and Weather              
Climate Change              
Environmental Protection              
Global Warming              
Sustainable Production              
Fields of Study
Agriculture and Climate Change