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The value of case-studies in determining the impact of climate change & extreme events on agriculture in England & Wales - CC0360

Description
This project aims to provide validation of the predictions of the impacts of future extreme events on the agricultural sector by comparison with impacts from past case study events. The study will make use of data and impact models already held by, or available to ADAS, together with the expert evidence from the specialists who contributed to the ADAS report on the hot summer of 1995, to assess the effects of extreme events for selected list of crops and livestock production. These data and expertise will help to refine and validate projections of future extreme events derived using Regional Climate Model (RCM) based scenarios for 2020 and 2050.

The focus of the project will be to refine the methodologies used to predict the effect of extreme event under climate change. Such work will help in the development of further work on the impacts of climate change based on longer runs of scenario data than are available for this study. However, from this initial assessment of impacts it will also be possible to highlight the sectors/commodities vulnerable to such events. In addition recommendations will be provided on data needs to help predict and detect extreme event impacts in the future.
Objective
1. To provide an assessment of the effects of climate change and future extreme events on agriculture by comparison of impact modelling and case study extreme events, including an exploration of the cause of any differences between the two methods.
2. To give an initial indication of the key vulnerabilities within the agricultural sectors to single and combinations of extreme events, and crop/productivity variables that can be used as indicators to these impacts.
3. To provide recommendations on the methodological approaches to adopt in examining the effect of extreme events, together with and indication of research gaps and a list of climate change scenario variables that are needed to help assess extreme event impacts
Project Documents
• Final Report : The value of case-studies in determining the impact of climate change & extreme events on agriculture in England & Wales   (262k)
• Final Report - Annex : The value of case-studies in determining the impact of climate change & extreme events on agriculture in England & Wales   (210k)
Time-Scale and Cost
From: 2000

To: 2002

Cost: £75,496
Contractor / Funded Organisations
ADAS UK Ltd.
Keywords
Climate and Weather              
Climate Change              
Environmental Protection              
Global Warming              
Sustainable Production              
Fields of Study
Agriculture and Climate Change