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To develop the arable crop model to assess likely impact of climate change - CC0302

Several computer-based simulation models have been developed to predict the response of crops to environmental change resulting from the “greenhouse effect”. However, these models have been constructed using data from experiments conducted under current conditions so that their predictions are often extrapolations outside the models’ known areas of accuracy. This study will determine the accuracy of crop models in predicting the response of major UK arable crops to elevated CO2 and temperature and to modify the models if they fail to predict the results adequately. Work will concentrate on the AFRC winter wheat model (ARCWHEAT), although a model for either potatoes or sugar beet will also be obtained and used. Results of the study will be used to produce sub-models of crop responses to CO2 and temperature; these will be combined into a general model by the end of the project, which will be available as a computer program for use in policy formulation or further research. Overall, the study will improve the ability to predict effects of increased CO2 and temperature on crop performance and will allow estimation of uncertainty associated with such predictions. In addition, models, developed from analysis of crop responses to a range of conditions, will provide a firm basis for understanding current and future agricultural practice and will help to increase efficiency of nutrient use by crops, assess disease and pest impacts, and identify targets for breeding programmes.
Time-Scale and Cost
From: 1991

To: 1997

Cost: £406,834
Contractor / Funded Organisations
Rothamsted Research (BBSRC)
Fields of Study
Agriculture and Climate Change