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Quantitative risk assessment to extrapolate from laboratory studies to determine population ecotoxicology in the field - PN0929

The aim of the project is to develop a generic framework to enable quantitative risk assessments to be made at the ecosystem level. A novel, stochastic risk assessment system will be developed utilising existing and newly acquired biological, agri-ecological and toxicological data. Information/data on pesticide behaviour within a crop, exposure of selected non-target invertebrates, the effect of environmental conditions, the role of arthropod behaviour and dispersal, and sub-lethal pesticide effects will be incorporated into the system. A spatially-explicit version will be developed so that assessments can be made at community, population and ecosystem levels. Full utilisation of recently developed novel stochastic risk assessments techniques will be undertaken to examine the effect of uncertainty of risk predictions. The system will be developed in close collaboration with PSD ensuring appropriate targeting of work and efficient transfer of results will be made to end-users throughout the project. The framework will aim to satisfy MAFF PSD’s objectives to improve understanding of extrapolating laboratory results to field conditions and thus, highlight and prioritise specific issues of particular concern when making pesticide risk assessments.
Objective 1. To develop a quantitative framework for integrating and synthesising laboratory, semi-field and field results for extrapolating to and predicting likely effects on invertebrate populations and communities
Objective 2. To validate the framework to ensure that predictions are sufficiently accurate
Objective 3. To use the framework, in conjunction with novel uncertainty analysis techniques, to quantify the relative importance of various biological, ecological, ecotoxicological and environmental factors on the effect of pesticides on ecosystems
Project Documents
• Final Report : Quantitative risk assessment to extrapolate from laboratory studies to determine population ecotoxicology in the field   (894k)
Time-Scale and Cost
From: 1999

To: 2002

Cost: £160,000
Contractor / Funded Organisations
Central Science Laboratory
Environmental Effects              
Pest and Weed Control              
Pesticide use              
Plants and Animals              
Fields of Study
Pesticide Safety