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Quantification of the Risk of Transmission of Bovine TB from Badgers to Cattle within Localised Areas - SE3006(1)

Description
Badgers have, for many years, been associated with bovine tuberculosis (TB) in cattle. However, the exact role that this species plays in the infection process is poorly understood and this has hindered the development of successful control strategies. This project aims to address these issues by:-
* identifying the correlates of local variation in the risk of TB transmission from badgers to cattle and developing models to quantitatively assess this risk, for a number of different spatial locations; particular locations will then be classified as high, medium orlow risk based on these quantitative estimates;
* analysing location specific models to determine whcih correlates have most influence on the calcuated estimates of risk (critical correlates) and to identify major data deficiences which will affect subsequent model optimistaion;
* devising practical TB control policies for high, medium and low risk locations.

DEFRA ISSUES A STATEMENT WITH THIS REPORT THAT STATES THAT 'THIS IS A HYPOTHETICAL ANALYSIS AND RISKS VARY WIDELY UNDER NATIONAL CONDITIONS'.
Objective
01 30/04/00 To develop a model framework that can be used to describe the transmission of bovine TB from badgers to cattle within defined localised areas within GB.

02 30/03/02 To develop individual quantiative risk assessment models for the transmission of bovine TB from badgers to cattle, for a number of defined locations within GB and to identify crucial areas of data deficiency which require further investigated to reduce uncertainty associated without output values of risk.

03 30/09/02 To present a series of practical control strategies for each of the defined locations within GB.

04 30/09/02 To submit risk assessment models of publications in peer-reviewed journals.
Time-Scale and Cost
From: 1999

To: 2002

Cost: £167,504
Contractor / Funded Organisations
Veterinary Laboratories Agency
Keywords
Animal Health              
Badgers              
Bovine Tuberculosis              
Plants and Animals              
Transmission              
Zoonoses              
Fields of Study
Animal Health