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Global Food Security Modelling: A Review of Approaches and Results - DO0139

Research Aim

The research has two distinct aims:

> Review and compare the existing set of models aimed at integrating environmental factors – particularly climate change - with global agricultural production and international food security over the longer-term .
> Summarize the key results, given current modeling technology, relating to global food security outcomes from these integrated models. The research should establish where key results differ significantly and identify the reasons behind disparities.

Key Questions Addressed

> Which models already exist and what kind of modelling approaches have been taken in terms of spatial, commodity and environmental coverage?
> How do models account for the impact of climate change?
> What are the key differences across models in terms of structure, assumptions, spatial coverage and outputs?
> Where are the main evidence gaps and how are these being addressed?
> Given the current state of modelling technology, what are the emerging results on long-run food security outcomes from these models? How sensitive are these results to key underlying assumptions?

The review will cover both partial equilibrium models of the global agricultural sector and general equilibrium approaches.
Project Documents
• FRP - Final Report : Global Food Security ModellingReport final   (1011k)
Time-Scale and Cost
From: 2013

To: 2013

Cost: £24,850
Contractor / Funded Organisations
Institute of Development Studies
Food Security