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Review of Methodology for Forecasting Waste Infrastructure Requirements - EV0802

Defra undertakes analysis to forecast levels of waste arisings and treatment capacity in England in 2020. The forecasts are used to assess the amount of biodegradable municipal waste that is expected to go to landfill and hence whether England is expected to meet the necessary diversion levels in 2020 for the EU Landfill Directive.

There will be two parts to this project. The first part will undertake an external review of previous forecasting methodologies considered by Defra and an audit of the forecasting model. This will include a review of the approach to forecasting waste arisings, treatment capacity and the amount of biodegradable municipal waste that goes to landfill in England. The second part of the project will incorporate Monte-Carlo analysis into the Defra forecasting model to provide a systematic and formalised approach to uncertainty as a whole and a richer understanding of the likelihood of a range of forecast outcomes. This aspect of the project should use initial illustrative inputs to outline the functionality of the Monte-Carlo approach; and also provide a further audit of the model.
This project will achieve the following objectives:
- Review of the modelling methodologies and assumptions, with recommendations for Defra to take forward for future modelling development.
- Incorporate Monte-Carlo functionality into the Defra forecasting model such that Defra can develop the model to undertake analysis using the Monte-Carlo approach.
- Audit of the modelling spreadsheet.

Project Documents
• FRP - Final Report : EV0802 NERA Review of Forecasting Methods Final Report   (387k)
• FRP - Final Report : EV0802 Stochastic Modelling of Landfill Directive Targets   (618k)
Time-Scale and Cost
From: 2012

To: 2012

Cost: £50,712
Contractor / Funded Organisations
NERA Economic Consulting
Economic Methodologies