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Development and use of an integrated model to simulate disease occurrence and estimate the economic impacts of surveillance systems - SE4303

The aim of this project is to develop and apply an integrated model of disease and surveillance activities in cattle to estimate the value of and improve resource allocation for scanning surveillance in Great Britain.

This project will combine the expertise of epidemiologists, modellers, statisticians, economists and veterinary scientists from the Veterinary Laboratories Agency and the Royal Veterinary College.

Activities will include:
1. Development of a generic epidemiologic model to simulate the transmission of a hypothetical emerging disease of cattle, various existing and proposed pathways of surveillance data collection and the implementation of control measures.
2. Development of an economic model to examine and compare the costs, benefits and effectiveness of different scanning surveillance activities
3. Collaboration and regular communication to ensure the integration of the two models
4. Use the integrated epidemiologic economic model to compare the cost effectiveness and, where possible, the cost benefit of existing and alternative scanning surveillance activities
5. Communication of knowledge generated by this work to policy decision makers and dissemination among the wider scientific community

This project is in line with the stated goals of the Veterinary Surveillance Strategy of improved prioritisation of and derivation of better value from surveillance information and activities.

Benefits arising from this project include the improved understanding of the process and effectiveness of scanning surveillance for new and emerging disease in Britain, and better
knowledge of the value and distribution of costs and benefits of scanning surveillance.

It is expected that this work will provide an improved evidence base for the allocation of resources in scanning surveillance and a better understanding of the potential gains in
efficiency from utilising alternative sources of data.
Project Documents
• EVID4 - Final project report : SE4303 Defra final report EVID4   (693k)
• ANX - Annex : Annex SE4303   (154k)
Time-Scale and Cost
From: 2011

To: 2012

Cost: £99,649
Contractor / Funded Organisations
Veterinary Laboratories Agency
Animal Diseases              
Animal Health              
Plants and Animals              
Veterinary Surveillance