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Designing Business as Usual Projections of the Marine Environment to Inform the UK Implementation of the Marine Strategy Framework Directive - ME5104

Summary Objective:

The broad aims of the study are to develop ‘Business as Usual’ projections for the likely changes in the MSFD descriptors of GES and key ecosystem services (ES) for the period 2007/08 to 2030. The projections are to be developed within an overall conceptual framework which links the DPSIR framework to the concepts of GES and ecosystem services

Key Customer Purpose:

The five key objectives for the project are: Objective 1 – prioritise key ecosystem services in the marine environment and identify associated drivers for change.  Objective 2 – collate existing forecasts/projections of drivers and pressures and develop assumptions about future trends where these do not exist.  Objective 3 – Establish sensitivity of key ecosystem services to changes in drivers and associated pressures, and identify how these relationships could change over time.  Objective 4 – present projections of the most likely changes in the state of the marine environment on an annual or 5-yearly basis up to 2030 starting from the base year 2007/08.  Objective 5 – describe a framework/methodology for presenting and updating modules in this analysis as research improves
Project Documents
• EVID4 - Final project report : R1793 Final 31jan2012 Defra Text   (8509k)
• FRP - Final Report : UK BAU Study Final Report   (4888k)
Time-Scale and Cost
From: 2011

To: 2011

Cost: £91,848
Contractor / Funded Organisations
ABP Marine Environmental Research Ltd