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Future patterns of ammonia emissions across the UK and the potential impact of local emission reduction measures - AC0109

Predictions of future emissions at various scales as affected by changes in agricultural activity and practice. The development and assessment of local strategies to protect SSSIs and other sites of conservation interest.

The aim of this project is to investigate possible future developments of the spatial distribution of ammonia emissions in the UK and how these are influenced by options to meet different national and international commitments. Specifically, the objectives are:
1) To develop detailed scenarios of the spatial distribution of ammonia emissions for future years (e.g. 2010, 2020, …) taking account of information on future projections of activity data (including spatial data wherever possible), and to compare these with existing simpler scenarios based on overall emissions ceilings.
2) To construct scenarios of possible spatial variation of ammonia emissions in relation to more efficient approaches for the protection of SSSIs and SACs for future years; by explicity including the spatial distribution of emissions, the aim is to maximize the protection in these target habitats for the minimum amount of emission reduction.
3) To provide these spatial emissions scenarios at a high spatial resolution for the application of the UK FRAME model, calculating NH3 concentrations and N deposition and assessing the extent and spatial distribution of exceedance of critical loads and critical levels.
4) To vary the emission scenarios, considering the outcomes of ecosystem protection, total magnitude of emissions (i.e. national ceilings), links to other policies and overall costs in order to assess the sensitivity and robustness of protection targets.
5) To test the local application of mitigation strategies at case study areas through the use of local scale atmospheric emissions, dispersion and deposition modelling at existing study sites (established under the GANE/LANAS and NitroEurope projects).
6) To investigate possible protection distances for SSSIs and SACs in relation to emission magnitude, farm and field management practices, risk of ecological effects and different regulatory contexts (e.g. degree of precaution in Habitats Directive vs. SSSIs etc).
7) To investigate approaches by which the findings of local scale (sub-grid) variability assessment and strategies can be incorporated quantitatively into national scale modelling, allowing more effective reporting of the benefits of local spatial strategies.
Project Documents
• EVID4 - Final project report : AC0109 NH3 Future Patterns FinalReport 2014-04-17   (2710k)
• ANX - Annex : AC0109 Appendix1 NH3 measures and scenarios   (597k)
• ANX - Annex : AC0109 Appendix2 Comparison BusinessAsUsual 2008 2020   (1721k)
• ANX - Annex : AC0109 Appendix3 CriticalLevels UK scenarios 2020   (490k)
• ANX - Annex : AC0109 Appendix4 CriticalLoads UK scenarios 2020   (917k)
• ANX - Annex : AC0109 Appendix5 LandscapeScaleAssessment   (2402k)
Time-Scale and Cost
From: 2007

To: 2010

Cost: £205,370
Contractor / Funded Organisations
Centre for Ecology and Hydrology
Climate and Weather              
Climate Change              
Environmental Protection              
Sustainable Production              
Fields of Study
Agriculture and Climate Change