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Future changes in transient climate and climatic extremes: Implications for agriculture - OC9009

Climate is one of the major factors influencing the productivity of agricultural systems. It is extremely important to attempt to quantify both the magnitude and the spatial pattern of any future greenhouse gas-induced climate change, in order to predict its impact on agriculture. The main aims of this project were: to construct scenarios of future changes in mean climate variables over the UK from General Circulation Models; to develop methods for investigation of the impact of climate change on climatic extremes; to derive estimates of transient changes in mean climate and climatic extremes in the UK that are relevant to agriculture; and to examine climate change impacts on crop yields and production. The results of this project were incorporated into an interactive PC based model known as SPECTRE (Spatial and Point Estimates of Climate change due to Transient Emissions). SPECTRE enables the user to explore the potential effects of a range of global greenhouse gas emission scenarios on various aspects of the UK climate. The model includes: global mean temperature and CO2 projections; UK results from 7 GCM climate change experiments; an original high resolution 1961-90 baseline climatology for the UK, constructed from the new comprehensive Met. Office observational data set; estimates of changes in frequencies of minimum and maximum temperature extremes for 9 representative locations in the UK; and an option to change the variance parameter used in the calculation of temperature extremes. Overall, SPECTRE can be divided into 2 general sections; the first is concerned with the construction of spatial climate change scenarios and the second with analysis of extreme temperatures at point locations in the UK. Data can be provided in the form of maps and graphical displays, and files containing numeric values relating to different climate scenarios can be exported.
Time-Scale and Cost
From: 1991

To: 1993

Cost: £51,267
Contractor / Funded Organisations
East Anglia University, Environmental Sc
Fields of Study
Agriculture and Climate Change