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Development of hybrid estuary morphological models - FD2107

Description
SUMMARY OBJECTIVE:
To develop new modelling tools capable of delivering 50-year forecasts of morphology enabling estimates of the associated flood risks. This will provide the basis for the sedimentary and dynamical module of an EMS to be delivered in Phase 3 of the ERP.

KEY CUSTOMER PURPOSE:
To help Defra in its responsibilities relating to proposed estuarine `interventions’ (engineering works, dredging, discharges etc) and long-term planning to accommodate climate change. Improvements in the UK`s forecasting capabilities are essential to inform shorter-term management and longer-term strategic policy planning.

PROJECT CLOSING STATEMENT:
This project supports the development of Hybrid models for (50-year) morphological prediction (combining advantages of T-D and B-U approaches). Several models were applied for different intervention and climate-change scenarios, to identify impacts on the levels and form of eight varied UK estuaries. This model intercomparison improved confidence in the models and provided inferences for flood risk, defences and habitats. It also links with ERP2 aspects and improve data: The FutureCoast data-base has been augmented; it will be archived with BODC and should benefit the EstSim (FD2117) Simulator.
Project Documents
• Final Report : Development of Estuary Morphological Models   (443k)
• Project Record : Development of estuary morphological models Annex A: Guidelines for application of bottom-up estuarine models to assess impacts of global climate change and interventions on flood risks and sediment r   (4481k)
• Project Record : Development of estuary morphological models Annex A1: SWAN modelling of Liverpool Bay including Dee, Mersey and Ribble Estuaries. Judith Wolf, August 2007   (3209k)
• Project Record : Development of estuary morphological models Annex C1: Area and volume changes in an estuary   (1041k)
• Project Record : Development of estuary morphological models Annex D: Development of a Lagrangian morphodynamic model for sandy estuaries and coasts   (15752k)
• Project Record : Development of estuary morphological models, Annex B: Shell Hybrid Model Interface Manual   (6501k)
• Project Record : Development of estuary morphological models, Annex C: ASMITA Manual   (2681k)
• Project Record : Development of estuary morphological models, Annex C2: Application of ASMITA to theThames Estuary   (1338k)
• Project Record : Development of estuary morphological models, Annex E: Hybrid modelling of managed realignment   (4884k)
• Project Record : Development of estuary morphological models, Annex F: Intercomparison of models predicting estuarine morphology   (16585k)
• Project Record : Development of estuary morphological models, Annex G: Predictions of estuarine morphology   (22545k)
• Project Record : Development of Estuary Morphological Models, Annex H: Morphological change and estuary management   (4010k)
• Technical Report : Development of estuary morphological models   (4221k)
• Technical Summary : Development of Estuary Morphological Models   (529k)
Time-Scale and Cost
From: 2004

To: 2007

Cost: ÂŁ539,190
Contractor / Funded Organisations
Proudman Oceanographic Laboratory, Natural Environment Research Council
Keywords
Environmental Protection              
Flood and Coastal Defence              
Flood Defence              
Land              
Modelling              
Fields of Study
Flood and Coastal Erosion Risk Management