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Forecasting, assessment and decision making for cereal aphids - AR0304

Description
Project Code: AR0304

Funded By Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs

Lead Research Centre
Central Science Laboratory
Sand Hutton
York

Abstract of Research Proposal

The aim of the project is to undertake biological and simulation studies to develop a prediction framework to forecast cereal aphid population outbreaks. Cereal aphids remain a major concern to the UK arable industry and insecticides are often applied prophylactically without regard to the risk posed by the pests. Therefore, to ensure rational use of pesticides a prediction system which forecasts pest risk is required. Existing information/data will be built upon with results from strategic studies on specific aspects of aphid biology and the data be used to develop a model describing the interactions between pest, crop, natural enemies and the environment. The model will be used to identify key factors influencing pest outbreaks, and determine cost-effective pest management strategies. The project aims to address MAFF`s policy to promote the productivity of the UK farming industries, whilst minimising pesticide inputs into farming and thus, any detrimental impacts on the environment.

Scientific Objectives

Objective 1 Investigate the interactions between plant physiology, fungicides, natural enemies, aphid dynamics and crop damage.
Objective 2 Develop and undertake initial validation of a mechanistic model framework to predict pest outbreaks incorporating crop physiology, fungicide effects, aphid dynamics, natural enemies and yield response.
Objective 3 Utilising the model, undertake a risk analysis to identify key corridors leading to pest outbreak and develop cost-effective management strategies.

Executive Summary of Final Report
Project not complete

Funding
£401,308

Start date: 01/04/00
Completion date: 31/03/04

Objective
1. Investigate the interactions between plant physiology, fungicides, natural enemies, aphid dynamics and crop damage

2. Develop and underayke initail validation of a mechanistic model framework to predict pest outbreaks incorporating crop physiology, fungicide effects, aphid dynamics natural enemies and yield response

3. Utilising the model, undertake risk analysis to identify key conditions leading to pest outbreak and develop cost effective management strategies
Project Documents
• Final Report : Forecasting, assessment and decision making for cereal aphids   (603k)
Time-Scale and Cost
From: 2000

To: 2004

Cost: £416,607
Contractor / Funded Organisations
Central Science Laboratory
Keywords
Arable Farming              
Cereal Production              
Farming              
Sustainable Production              
Fields of Study
Arable Crops