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Multivariate analysis of risk factors affecting tuberculosis incidence in cattle herds - phase 1 - SE3004(2)

The resurgence of tuberculosis in the UK cattle herd has necessitated new emphasis on understanding the factors responsible for outbreaks at a herd level. Those that have been strongly indicated are the presence of badgers, the local climate and landscape, and various management practices. Nevertheless, there has been little research specifically directed to define the relative importance of each of these risk factors, and to understand how they inter-relate to each other.
By undertaking a retrospective (case-control) study of herd breakdowns in the recent past (01/01/1997 - 30/06/1998) and applying a multivariate (logistic regression) analysis it will be possible to:
1) Define the relative importance of the hazards associated with a TB incident and provide a quantified estimate of these factors.
2) Determine whether evidence exists for hypotheses such as that between the association of the disease and the local density of the badger population.
3) Provide an assessment of the scientific value of the TB investigation (“TB49”) form.
4) Provide a consultant report of the findings in order to inform MAFF and MAFF-funded research projects.
01 30/09/1999 Design telephone questionnaire
02 31/01/2000 Undertake telephone case-control survey
03 30/04/2000 Undertake assessment of the quality of the TB49 form
04 30/04/2000 Produce badger abundance estimates of cases and controls
05 30/04/2000 Produce estimates of landscape structure, (and climate variables if data available), for cases
and controls
06 31/05/2000 Analyse telephone survey data, badger, landscape and climatic variables and case-contol
study data
07 30/06/2000 Complete consultant report
08 31/03/2001 Complete retrospective analyses and quarterly report development
Time-Scale and Cost
From: 1999

To: 2004

Cost: £273,209
Contractor / Funded Organisations
Veterinary Laboratories Agency
Animal Health              
Bovine Tuberculosis              
Plants and Animals              
Fields of Study
Animal Health