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Effects of climate change on agricultural land use in England and Wales - CC0339

The project will clarify, validate and further develop a suite of models for estimating climate change effects on land use in England and Wales.
The Project will:
I. Undertake some important methodological developments of the CLUAM to include:
i. Validation of the model through backtracking (i.e. using the model to define past land use patterns using known prices and yields) to the 1960s. (See appendix A)
ii. Production of a more detailed layman's description assessment of the CLUAM so as to increase non-user understanding. This will cover all aspects of the model’s methodology.
iii. Improvement of the perceived realism of the CLUAM by a) increasing the degree of flexibility of the demand constraints and perhaps also output, e.g. undertaking an examination of increased exports from the UK, b) further examination of the inertias that may lead to lags in changes to land use allocations.
iv. Exploration of the economic margins needed for unallocated or low economic potential land to come into use by building in some notional crop activities (representing perhaps new forestry or non-agricultural enterprises).
v. Provision of a detailed account of the policy assumptions in the CLUAMvi. Convert the CLUAM to run on a new software package (Express-Data Associates) to permit greater flexibility in running the model for scenario testing.

II. Provide a full description of the BLS and test its sensitivity to altered assumptions concerning population and demand.

III. Provide a thorough explanation of rigidity of the Land Classes used in ITE’s Land Classification System and develop a method of overcoming the hard edge effect which has characterised previous studies.
Project Documents
• Final Report : Final Report on CC0339   (2789k)
Time-Scale and Cost
From: 1999

To: 2000

Cost: £71,132
Contractor / Funded Organisations
University - East Anglia
Fields of Study
Agriculture and Climate Change