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ANIHWA: Development of Spatial risk assessment framework for assessing exotic disease incuRsion and spread through Europe (SPARE) - SE0547
Disease incursion and transmission modelling can play an important role in elucidating
important pathways and dynamics of transboundary diseases. It is an important
pre-requisite for preparedness and rapid response. These risk assessments are typically
complex and data-hungry, limiting the real-world applicability in the event of a novel
disease outbreak. However, the European Union (EU) maintains a number of extensive
and real time datasets. Further data on global presence of disease is available through
datasets held by the OIE, WAHID.
The objective of the project is to develop an overarching model to make rapid use of
available metadata to identify pathways of potential risk for classes of disease
transmission (e.g. vector borne). This framework will provide invaluable information for
risk assessors in the first instances of a disease outbreak where typically information on
imports and routes of entry and potential for spread is undertaken on a case-by-case basis.
It will also allow for an objective and systematic evaluation to inform risk-based animal
health and zoonotic surveillance activities, either generically or for specific diseases. The
framework will be readily adaptable not only to specific disease hazards, but also to broad
classes of disease, defined by their mode of transmission.
To assure feasibility and focus, the project will group biological hazards into distinct
mode-of-transmission classes and develop a case study for each. For the release
assessment, relevant incidence data from exporting countries will be combined with trade
data, air passenger information, road transport data, and vector movement to identify
important trade/movement routes from relevant geographical regions. The exposure
assessment will identify the potential spread of disease via competent vectors by member
state and for exposure of domestic livestock and/or humans by population density
mapping and be used to inform efficient surveillance designs.
Encompassing all areas in the project will be a communication network, ensuring that the
modelling work builds from previous work in this area and is fit to provide scientific
support to decision makers. In the event of an incursion, risk management decisions are to
be taken under significant time constraints. The project will specifically address this
dialogue and propose processes taking into account existing organisations and structures,
to assure a rapid translation from science into policy.
1.To develop a systematic methodology to rank the risk related to selected pathogens
based on the probability of incursion and taking into account the relevance of
transmission pathways within Europe.
2. To apply the approach to selected hazards relevant to participating countries and for
the EU in general (case studies). Case studies will be selected such that different
mechanisms of spread within Europe will be represented.
3. To develop the functionalities of the model including data exchange and merging
protocols for data from different sources, using software available in freeware such that
it can be disseminated to interested member states assuring interfacing with existing
early warning mechanisms
FRP - Final Report : SE0547 - Final Report
Time-Scale and Cost
Contractor / Funded Organisations
APHA (Animal and Plant Health Agency)
Fields of Study