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Stress testing and optimisation of early interception networks for invasive pests of pollinators - PH0517
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Description
The aim of this work is to adapt existing disease modelling frameworks to test the ability of an existing Sentinel Apiary network to predict i) the invasion and ii) the time to detection of non-native pest species. We will use spatially and temporally explicit records from the invasion of the Varroa mite in 1992 to calculate what portion of the spread was due to the pest itself, and how much was contributed by the movement of infected colonies/equipment by beekeepers, as well as other environmental factors unaccounted for in the data. Using existing Pest Risk Assessments, we will then adapt the model to reflect the biology and invasion pathways of currently exotic statutory notifiable pests such as Tropilaelaps mites, the Small hive beetle and the Asian Hornet, before stress testing and optimising the Sentinel Apiary network to increase the probability of exotic pest eradication. |
Objective
The aim of this work is to adapt existing modelling frameworks, currently used to reconstruct disease epidemics in the honey bee population (Figure 1; see Annex 1), to test the ability of an existing Sentinel Apiary network to predict i) the invasion and ii) the time to detection of non-native pest species.
Project objectives (O1-4) are detailed below with statements describing specific evidence objectives (EO) which are each linked to project milestones and completion date. More details on objective start dates can be found in the Gantt chart (Figure 4).
O1 - Develop and validate a pest modelling framework to simulate the Varroa invasion in the UK (Milestone 1; 01/11/2014)
O2 - Adapt the Varroa model, to reflect the biology and import pathways for Tropilaelaps, Small Hive beetle and the Asian Hornet. (Milestone 2; 01/01/2015)
O3 – Stress test the current Sentinel apiary network. (Milestone 3; 01/02/2015)
O4 – In the context of O3, provide best practise recommendations for early invasive pest detection. (Milestone 4; 31/03/2015)
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Project Documents
• EVID4 - Final project report : 12 FINAL EVID4 SEPF Sentinels 2017
(3774k)
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Time-Scale and Cost
From:
2014
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To:
2015
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Cost: £154,475 |
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Contractor / Funded Organisations
F E R A (FERA) |
Keywords
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Fields of Study
Plant Health |