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Sustaining Met Office Hadley Centre Climate Programme - CA0508

The Met Office Hadley Centre Climate Programme (MOHC CP), is a 3 year directed science programme with policy outputs, co-funded by Defra and DECC to meet departmental needs for climate evidence. The Programme provides the best available climate information which is necessary to support risk-based decision-making required to adapt to climate change.

The MOHC CP is split into 3 areas: underpinning science (termed Science Themes), policy relevant outputs (termed Climate Services) and Infrastructure elements (e.g. high-performance computing). The topics included are outlined below:

Climate Science:
- Climate Sensitivity, Thresholds, and the Water Cycle
- Earth System Processes
- Dynamics of Climate Variability and Change
- Regional Climate and Climate Extremes
- Development and Delivery of Scenarios and Projections on a range of timescales: Monthly to Decadal (to 5yrs), Multi-decadal (5-40years) and Centennial (40+years)

Climate Service Themes:
- Supporting the Underpinning Evidence Base and Provision of Material for DECC/Defra Climate Communications
- Delivery of new UK Climate Projects (UKCPNext)
- Food Security and UK farming impacts#
- Changes in Sea Level Extremes around the UK, to complement UKCPNext information
- Air Quality and Carbon Budgets

Infrastructure Themes:
- Monitoring Climate and Dataset Development
- Development and Evaluation of Atmosphere-Ocean-Sea-Ice-Land Surface (AOIL) Models
- Development, Application and Evaluation of UKESM1
- Scientific Computing

The 2 main Climate Services for Defra are around Food Security and UKCPNext:-

A. Food Security: The first component of this service will focus on UK food security in a globalised world. 3 fundamental questions addressed will be:
i) What is the frequency/likelihood, magnitude, location of global extreme events - in relation to major agricultural producers and exporters?
iI) What is the effect of climate change and extreme events on crop yield and production in major breadbasket regions, and thus on global food security?
iiI) How will interactions between land use change, crop growth and climate change affect future food security internationally?

B. UKCPNext: UKCPnext is expected to be rolled out in stages, with significant upgrades appearing by the end of the Climate Programme, and in time to support the third national CCRA.
i) New uncertainty distributions of plausible future changes in temperature, precipitation and other key variables. These will replace the pdfs in the UKCP09 and will account for an expanded set of observations and new understanding, for instance from the CMIP5 models.
ii) New spatially coherent projections from up to 30 plausible pathways of future 21st century climate derived from an ensemble of HadGEM3, and designed to reflect key uncertainties.
iii) Production of a set of downscaled simulations of future climate, driven by the global simulations of strand 2.
Time-Scale and Cost
From: 2012

To: 2015

Cost: £17,600,000
Contractor / Funded Organisations
Meteorological Office
Adapting to Climate Change