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Food and Agricultural Policy Research Institute (FAPRI) - UK Project - DO108

Description
Following successive Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) reforms the days of complex commodity regimes, high levels of protectionism and the underlying imperative of farm income support have been replaced by recognition of the importance of: simplified policy instruments, market stabilising measures, trade liberalisation, food security and, increasingly, the challenge of limiting climate change. Consequently, UK agriculture will have to respond to the necessity of meeting targets for Green House Gas emissions (GHG); contributing to the challenges of ensuring global food and energy security; and address global price volatility, at the same time as operating under whatever post 2013 CAP regime and WTO Doha agreement, if any, come into force. A full assessment of the likely impacts of policies to address these issues requires full consideration of global, national and regional market dynamics.

The FAPRI-UK modelling system captures the dynamic interrelationships among the variables affecting supply and demand in the main agricultural sectors of England, Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland. The model consists of a system of equations covering the dairy, beef, sheep, pigs, poultry, wheat, barley, oats, rapeseed and biofuel sectors. The UK model is fully incorporated within the EU grain, oilseed, livestock and dairy (GOLD) run by FAPRI at the University of Missouri. The combined modelling system provides a systematic framework that takes account of interactions among the agricultural sectors in regional, EU and World markets.

The models generate annually-determined, 10-year Baseline projections of all the major agricultural commodity prices, production levels and greenhouse gas emissions, against which policy scenarios can be compared. Baseline projections provide a benchmark against which projections derived from policy scenarios can be compared and interpreted. The modelling system is then further simulated with changes to policy variables and the results are compared against the Baseline to isolate the policy effects across the ten-year projection period. The model incorporates variables representing the major policy instruments associated with the EU CAP, as well as external trade commitments made by the EU. These policy variables can be altered to run scenarios for the purposes of policy analysis as agreed by the project managment board. In addition to quantifying the greenhouse gas emissions associated with any specific policy regime, the models will be used to analyse the impact of policies designed to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, including mitigation strategies and input or output taxes. The models will also be used to analyse the impact of the elimination of biofuel support policies and the impact of alternative crude oil prices on UK biofuels and agricultural market. Finally, using a stochastic approach, which enables assumptions about certain exogenous variables to be varied, it will be feasible to examine for example the impact of variable EU (including the UK) crop yields, UK exchange rates and demand for meat and milk.
Objective
The FAPRI-UK modelling system captures the dynamic interrelationships among the variables affecting supply and demand in the main agricultural sectors of England, Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland. The model consists of a system of equations covering the dairy, beef, sheep, pigs, poultry, wheat, barley, oats, rapeseed and biofuel sectors. The UK model is fully incorporated within the EU grain, oilseed, livestock and dairy (GOLD) run by FAPRI at the University of Missouri. The combined modelling system provides a systematic framework that takes account of interactions among the agricultural sectors in regional, EU and World markets.
Project Documents
• TRP - Technical Report : 2005 - December - England - Impact of Trade Liberalisation on Agriculture   (166k)
• TRP - Technical Report : 2005 - December - Northern Ireland - Impact of Trade Liberalisation on Agriculture   (344k)
• TRP - Technical Report : 2005 - December - Scotland - Impact of Trade Liberalisation on Agriculture   (161k)
• TRP - Technical Report : 2005 - December - UK - Impact of Trade Liberalisation on Agriculture   (160k)
• TRP - Technical Report : 2005 - December - Wales - Impact of Trade Liberalisation on Agriculture   (162k)
• TRP - Technical Report : 2007 - January - Scotland - Analysis of the Impact of the Abolition of Milk Quotas, Increased Modulation and Reductions in the Single Farm Payment   (224k)
• TRP - Technical Report : 2007 - January - Wales - Analysis of the Impact of the Abolition of Milk Quotas, Increased Modulation and Reductions in the Single Farm Payment   (227k)
• TRP - Technical Report : 2007 - January - England - Analysis of the Impact of the Abolition of Milk Quotas, Increased Modulation and Reductions in the Single Farm Payment   (226k)
• TRP - Technical Report : 2007 - January - Northern Ireland - Analysis of the Impact of the Abolition of Milk Quotas, Increased Modulation and Reductions in the Single Farm Payment   (238k)
• TRP - Technical Report : 2007 - January - UK - Analysis of the Impact of the Abolition of Milk Quotas, Increased Modulation and Reductions in the Single Farm Payment   (220k)
• TRP - Technical Report : 2008 - July - England - Analysis of the Impact of the CAP Health Check on Agriculture   (174k)
• TRP - Technical Report : 2008 - July - Northern Ireland - Analysis of the Impact of the CAP Health Check on Agriculture   (176k)
• TRP - Technical Report : 2008 - July - Scotland - Analysis of the Impact of the CAP Health Check on Agriculture   (175k)
• TRP - Technical Report : 2008 - July - UK - Analysis of the Impact of the CAP Health Check on Agriculture   (175k)
• TRP - Technical Report : 2008 - July - Wales - Analysis of the Impact of the CAP Health Check on Agriculture   (173k)
• TRP - Technical Report : 2009 - July - England - Impact of HM Treasury/Defra's Vision for the Common Agricultural Policy on Agriculture   (522k)
• TRP - Technical Report : 2009 - July - Northern Ireland - Impact of HM Treasury/Defra's Vision for the Common Agricultural Policy on Agriculture   (520k)
• TRP - Technical Report : 2009 - July - Scotland - Impact of HM Treasury/Defra's Vision for the Common Agricultural Policy on Agriculture   (523k)
• TRP - Technical Report : 2009 - July - UK - Impact of HM Treasury/Defra's Vision for the Common Agricultural Policy on Agriculture   (521k)
• TRP - Technical Report : 2009 - July - Wales - Impact of HM Treasury/Defra's Vision for the Common Agricultural Policy on Agriculture   (520k)
• TRP - Technical Report : 2010 - August - 2010 FAPRI-UK Agricultural Commodities and Greenhouse Gas Emission baseline projections   (245k)
• TRP - Technical Report : 2010 - December - A Stochastic Analysis of the Impact of Volatile World Agricultural Prices on European and UK Agriculture   (338k)
• TRP - Technical Report : 2010 - December - Greenhouse Gas Emission Modelling System for England, Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland   (317k)
• TRP - Technical Report : 2010 - December - Modelling of the UK Liquid Biofuels Sector   (203k)
• TRP - Technical Report : 2011 - FAPRI-UK Baseline Final Projections   (257k)
• TRP - Technical Report : 2011 - FAPRI-UK Model – Documentation   (1657k)
• TRP - Technical Report : 2012 - EU & UK FAPRI Baseline Briefing Book   (758k)
• TRP - Technical Report : 2012 - FAPRI-UK Baseline Projections 2012-2021   (261k)
• TRP - Technical Report : 2012 - Impact of Alternative Crude Oil Prices on the UK Liquid Biofuel and Agricultural Markets   (1623k)
• TRP - Technical Report : 2013 - Impact of CAP Post-2013 Reforms on Agriculture in the UK   (1296k)
• TRP - Technical Report : 2013 - Sectoral Impact of Transferring Funds Between Pillar I and Pillar II   (291k)
• TRP - Technical Report : Input-Output Tax Report   (1004k)
Time-Scale and Cost
From: 2010

To: 2013

Cost: £648,000
Contractor / Funded Organisations
Agri-Food and Biosciences Institute
Keywords
Agriculture              
Beef              
Biofuels              
Cereals              
Common Agricultural Policy (CAP)              
Corporate Issues              
Economic Policy Evaluation              
Poultry              
Sheep