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Development and Testing of Predictive Models to allow Sample Discounting - Phase 2 - WT0723BWD

The overall project objective is:

‘to determine the feasibility of developing operational models to forecast occasions when designated European Bathing Waters will fail to achieve pre-set thresholds for faecal indicator organisms’.

The proposed revision to the Bathing Waters Directive, which reached a ‘common position’ at the EU Environment Ministers meeting in June 2004 contains a number of new innovations which will impact upon the Agency’s future monitoring and assessment protocols for identified waters. Member States will be allowed, under the provisions of Article 3(6) and Annexes II and IV, to 'discount' up to 15% of compliance samples, provided the public are advised in advance that water quality may be unsuitable for bathing. This discounting provision has the potential to improve our ability to optimise the classification status of waters and provide the public with information which could impact on Public Health. These provisions will be of particular significance for those waters that may be classified as “poor”, or those that aspire to achieve ‘blue flag’ status.

Successful implementation of these discounting provisions may, however, only be successful if the occasions when bathing water will fail a required standard can be predicted with confidence. DEFRA Water Quality Division have asked the Agency to investigate the practicality of making quality forecasts, and hence evaluate the potential of what has become known as Short Term Pollution Incident (STPI) prediction.
1. To train project personnel on optimising use of Clementine®.

2. Inter-calibration of modelling approaches between EA and SEPA

3. Identify the most suitable software &/or prediction models to use

4. To assess site classification against historical data using EA models.

5. Verification of model outputs by statistician.

6. Production of final report
Time-Scale and Cost
From: 2006

To: 2008

Cost: £49,000
Contractor / Funded Organisations
Environment Agency - England
Bathing Water              
Environmental Protection              
Fields of Study
Water Quality