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Modelling logistics of control of avian influenza in metapopulations and networks - MP0187

"If an epidemic is caught sufficiently early, then all available resources can be concertedly deployed to eliminate the incipient epidemic as rapidly as possible. However, should the epidemic progress, it is likely that availability of resources, such as for surveillance, implementation of biosecurity, veterinary investigation or slaughter, may be constrained. Identifying how one should best deploy these resources is a critical component of effective disease control.

Here, we investigate the role of logistics constraints on the control of a putative epidemic of avian influenza in the GB poultry population. This project consists of three parts – a data mining exercise to identify the likely routes of transmission and estimate the relative importance of these routes, a strategic modelling exercise to determine underlying principles of the relationship between constraints on resources and the control of disease, and development of a detailed network model, that could be used to identify when an avian influenza epidemic is most likely to be a local problem, a regional problem, or a national problem when resources are constrained."
Project Documents
• FRP - Final Report : Modelling logistics of control of avian influenza in metapopulations and networks   (437k)
Time-Scale and Cost
From: 2005

To: 2006

Cost: £82,484
Contractor / Funded Organisations
Veterinary Laboratories Agency
Animal Diseases              
Animal Health              
Plants and Animals